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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a form of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or just the most shocking surprise.

But this year's field is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners declining and recent underperformers improving together. During an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a wild and thrilling year, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which wasn't a given after his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year argument has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

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