A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
